Keeping gas flowing through Cyclone Narelle

March 2026

What Cyclone Narelle revealed about WA’s gas market resilience

Overview

When Cyclone Narelle hit Western Australia’s north-west coast in March 2026, more than half of the state’s gas supply was suddenly at risk.

From 17 to 29 March 2026, Cyclone Narelle moved across northern Australia before intensifying into a category 4 system near the Carnarvon Basin, triggering a major disruption to WA’s gas market. It was only the second system since reliable Bureau of Meteorology records began in 1980–81 to make landfall as a category 3 or stronger cyclone across three major regions.

For Western Australia’s gas market, this created a significant once-in-a-decade supply shock.

Photograph: Bureau of Meteorology

The challenge

The Carnarvon Basin underpins WA’s gas supply. As Narelle approached, production at Karratha, Wheatstone and Varanus Island was disrupted, affecting facilities that typically supply around 55% of the state’s gas market. The cyclone also forced the shutdown of Tubridgi and Mondarra storage, alongside Waitsia and Xyris production further south.

The shortfall reached 650TJ a day between 26 March and 3 April, the market relied heavily on storage and pipeline flexibility to maintain supply. On 28 March, the gasTrading Spot MarketTM was interrupted for the first time in its history and remained offline for seven days.

This was, in every sense, a rare high-impact event. In fast-moving supply disruptions, timing and flexibility become just as important as contracted volume.

This kind of disruption shows the difference between having a contract and having a plan.

The solution

Our priority was clear: Maintain supply continuity and minimise curtailment risk for clients. That outcome was driven by three factors.

  • We positioned ahead of the disruption
    EMG didn’t wait for Narelle to make landfall. We built a positive imbalance position, effectively buffering gas in the pipeline while conditions allowed and operating within DBNGP operator constraints.
  • We maximised storage flexibility
    Storage accounted for around 20% of our supply response. We actively managed intraday and day-ahead movements to maintain a positive pipeline balance and respond to shifting curtailment conditions.
  • We secured returning supply early
    Throughout the disruption, we worked with producers to secure As-Available supply arrangements. This enabled us to restore firm supply quickly, rebuild customer positions and support the return of stability to the spot market.

Results and industry impact

By early April, production across key facilities was steadily restored, with the market returning to normal operations shortly after. Importantly, our clients came through one of WA’s most significant gas supply events with minimal disruption. We were assisted by customers reducing nominations, demonstrating resilience across the gas market is a shared effort. Three lessons stand out.

  • Resilience is built before disruption occurs
    An extended disruption of this scale is unusual, but not impossible. Contingency planning must reflect the real scale of risk, not just normal operating conditions.
  • Diversification matters more than price during supply shocks
    Gorgon and Macedon were largely spared, and their customers avoided major curtailment. That was luck, not strategy. Supply diversification remains one of the most effective ways to manage exposure during system-wide disruptions
  • Storage buys time, not immunity
    Storage is invaluable as an immediate response tool over days or weeks, but it is finite and comes at a cost. Beyond that window, the market rebalances – often at materially higher prices.

Strategic significance

Severe weather will always be part of operating in WA. The difference in outcomes is determined long before the storm arrives. Positioning early, secure flexible supply and building portfolios designed to absorb disruption rather than react to it.

Cyclone Narelle reinforced a simple reality for WA energy users: Resilience is no longer optional. Organisations best positioned during supply disruptions are those that prepare early, diversify supply intelligently and actively manage risk long before a weather event’s impact is felt.